There has been intense discussion about artificial intelligence and whether it will raise global productivity or remove jobs. The truth appears to be somewhere in the middle. Although advanced tools can automate certain tasks, many businesses are proceeding with caution. They are rolling out AI gradually and often using it to support rather than replace workers.
Predictions related to AI have often focused on extreme outcomes such as massive efficiency gains or significant job cuts. However, newer research indicates that those concerns may be exaggerated. Data from U.S. business surveys shows a different picture. AI implementation is advancing at a deliberate pace. Even in technology-focused industries, adoption is far behind what many expected. In transportation and warehousing, AI usage is still under 3% and in finance, it is around 10%. Only about one in four companies in the information sector are using generative AI in their products or services.
Upon closer examination, the figures reveal something surprising - increased hiring. While some firms are cutting roles through automation, more are expanding their teams due to AI. This includes creating new jobs that focus on AI or strengthening existing teams to manage and apply these technologies. The overall effect has been employment growth rather than decline.
A major factor contributing to the confusion is a misreading of AI's role. Analyses that estimate how much of a job AI could handle often ignore that most jobs involve a mix of tasks, many of which cannot be easily automated. Tasks that require emotional insight, complex decision-making and an understanding of context remain well beyond AI's current capabilities. This means that just because a job is exposed to AI does not mean it will be replaced.
In future, businesses do intend to automate more tasks using AI but this is expected to happen gradually and to different extents depending on the sector. The effect on employment will be shaped by both AI's capabilities and how businesses and workers respond. For now, as AI spreads more slowly than predicted, there is an opportunity for people and policymakers to prepare for changing skill needs and emerging job opportunities.
