Generative AI tools that can write code and design interfaces in minutes are starting to blur the line between complex software platforms and low-cost, AI-assisted alternatives. This shift is unsettling investors who once saw design and productivity software as highly defensible premium assets. In Australia this matters far beyond the tech sector, as everyday workers are indirectly exposed through their super funds which have poured billions into unlisted “unicorn” companies that once looked like sure bets for growth.
Canva, which was valued at around $65 billion in its last major funding round, sits alongside other high-profile private tech firms such as Rokt, previously pegged at about $7 billion and SafetyCulture at roughly $2.5 billion. Similar companies offshore have already been hit hard. A major US design software rival has seen its share price tumble by about three-quarters since its market debut, while other large enterprise software groups have dropped between 40 and 70% as investors reassess how AI could commoditise core products. At the same time tens of thousands of tech roles have disappeared globally and large fintech and software employers have flagged or implemented workforce cuts as they lean into automation and cost control.
Australia’s biggest super funds have quietly become significant backers of this private tech boom via venture capital partnerships. Funds such as AustralianSuper, Hostplus, Australian Retirement Trust and Hesta hold indirect stakes in Canva and similar firms through managers including Blackbird, Airtree and Square Peg. For some funds Canva makes up around 1% of assets under management. For others exposure is smaller, closer to a few hundredths of 1%. Early investors have enjoyed extraordinary gains but those who bought into higher late-stage valuations may now be sitting on paper losses that are not yet visible to members because private valuations are updated far less frequently than listed share prices.
This slow-moving valuation process sits at the heart of the tension. Super funds emphasise that they have specialist valuation teams, regular independent reviews and policies that trigger “out of cycle” revaluations when market conditions change sharply. Regulators acknowledge that private assets still make up a modest slice of overall portfolios and they support closer scrutiny of this opaque corner of the financial system rather than sounding an alarm. Yet past episodes, such as a more than $1 billion writedown on an offshore education software investment and earlier criticism over delays in marking down Canva during the 2022 tech downturn, show how easily private valuations can lag reality and create an illusion of stability.
From the tech industry’s perspective, AI looks less like a death sentence and more like a brutal filter. Some platforms appear well placed to absorb AI into their core products, cut headcount and potentially emerge with stronger margins and more loyal customers. Others risk being undercut if businesses decide to assemble their own AI-made tools rather than pay for traditional licences, even though AI experts argue most companies will still rely on proven, secure software rather than fully bespoke home-grown systems. Venture investors suggest that at Canva’s scale its growth profile would still rank among the strongest listed software firms globally and AI-enhanced advertising platforms like Rokt could see a powerful tailwind as targeting improves.
For super fund members the outcome is far from certain. If AI boosts productivity and profitability at the strongest tech players, funds could ultimately benefit from higher long-term returns. If valuations prove too optimistic and writedowns accelerate, members might discover that the glossy numbers attached to private tech unicorns masked sharper underlying volatility. Either way the next round of quarterly private asset reviews looks set to test how quickly Australia’s super funds are willing to bring their books in line with an AI-transformed market.
