Over the past year, airfares across the country have climbed sharply due to record levels of travel demand, particularly during major events such as the football finals and school holidays. However, there are signs that this pressure may soon ease. After five months of consistent growth in seat availability, industry observers believe prices could begin to fall if airlines maintain this pace and fuel prices stay moderate.
Two major carriers currently dominate the domestic market with a combined 98% share. Their capacity decisions have played a significant role in pricing. A shortage of aircraft had previously restricted supply, keeping airfares high. That trend is starting to shift as new and reassigned aircraft are deployed, enabling airlines to better handle peak travel periods and potentially reduce average fares.
Data from the competition regulator reports that October recorded the highest airfares since December 2022. Prices rose 3.2% over the previous year and were 4.5% higher than in October 2019. At the same time, the number of available seats rose by 4.5% in October and 4.6% in September. Supply is now beginning to catch up with demand.
Consumers now have reason for cautious optimism. While fares have not yet dropped, the trend of increasing seat capacity combined with slightly lower jet fuel costs could lead to price reductions in the months ahead. Regulatory oversight will also remain strong. The competition regulator’s monitoring powers, extended until late 2026, will help ensure airlines are held accountable and that customer interests remain protected. This is particularly important as shifting ownership and new strategies continue to shape the competitive landscape of the domestic aviation sector.
