Sydney’s main airport is currently operating with roughly 25 days of jet fuel on hand, all of it imported, and the airport operator is warning that this dependence on overseas refineries, shipping lanes and geopolitical calm leaves the country exposed when global tensions flare.
In New Zealand the national carrier plans to remove about 1100 flights over the next two months, trimming roughly 5% of its total schedule and affecting around 44,000 travellers as part of a push to conserve fuel and soften the blow of higher costs after recent fare increases of about $NZ10 on domestic services, $NZ30 on short‑haul routes and $NZ90 on long‑haul trips. However most of those cancellations fall on domestic operations, with only a small share of international flights being cut, while Australian competitors keep their timetables largely intact and instead rely more on price rises and route changes to cope with the same fuel shock.
At the same time Australian airlines such as the national flag carrier and its main rival are holding their schedules steady, with one lifting international fares by an estimated 5% and exploring ways to shift more capacity onto popular European routes such as London, Paris and Rome to capture demand from travellers who are wary of flying through the Middle East as conflict there pushes oil and jet fuel costs sharply higher.
All of this is unfolding as jet fuel, which usually sits near $US85 a barrel, now trades at roughly double that level. Regional conflict, attacks on shipping and the partial closure of key routes such as the Strait of Hormuz are amplifying worries about supply, and Australia is understood to have just over a month’s worth of total liquid fuel stocks across petrol, diesel and jet fuel. This situation appears likely to increase pressure to build a domestic sustainable aviation fuel industry after years of stalled studies, although there are still major questions over timing, investment and policy support.
