Estia’s owner, a global investment firm, is now looking beyond its earlier talks with the Opal aged care network and appears to be sounding out listed operator Regis Healthcare about a potential tie-up. Regis has been weighing a substantial deal for several months and its portfolio is widely seen as one of the strongest in the sector, skewed toward higher-end care homes and supported living options. The interest comes as aged care operators across Australia face rising costs, stricter standards and mounting demand from an older population, all of which push boards and private equity backers to consider scale, mergers and listings more seriously.
Regis, valued at about $2.25-$2.3 billion on the Australian sharemarket with a share price that has rebounded from around $1.46 to roughly $7.50, sits in a strong position compared with many rivals thanks to its premium positioning and diversified mix of residential, retirement and home care clients. Estia, bought off the sharemarket in 2023 for around $838 million after previously being listed, runs more than 90 homes for over 10,000 residents, while Opal, half-owned by a private equity firm after a roughly $1 billion deal, operates about 142 facilities caring for more than 13,000 residents. Industry advisers suggest that bringing Estia and Opal together could unlock significant cost and revenue efficiencies and any move to fold in Regis would turn the combined group into one of Australia’s most dominant aged care providers, large enough to attract passive index funds if it eventually relists.
On a broader level, the push toward a multi billion dollar merger looks like an attempt to create the kind of scale and portfolio diversity that can support heavy investment in care standards, staffing and infrastructure, yet it also seems to raise concerns about competition, regional choice and how easily three complex operations could be integrated. Market sources indicate that if Estia and Opal do combine, their private equity backers may need roughly a year to knit the businesses together before considering a fresh listing that would offer liquidity and an exit path for existing investors. Whether Regis joins that plan appears to hinge on the appetite of its major shareholders for further expansion, the sector’s regulatory trajectory and how comfortable policymakers and investors are with a few large operators controlling a growing slice of Australia’s aged care system.
