Australia’s push to keep planes flying with largely imported jet fuel aims to support busy airports and airlines but it now risks triggering rationing and higher fares as global conflicts squeeze supply routes and refinery exports.
Australia currently leans heavily on overseas producers for its aviation fuel even though airports are meant to hold close to a month’s worth of stock as a buffer. The country has only two operating refineries that make jet fuel, both outside New South Wales, after Sydney’s refineries shut in 2012 and 2014. That shift made major hubs such as Sydney Airport almost entirely dependent on imports just as tensions in the Middle East and tighter global energy markets began to unsettle long-distance shipping lanes and oil prices.
Sydney Airport alone handles about 40% of the nation’s aviation fuel needs, moving roughly 9 million litres every day, yet it relies completely on overseas deliveries with no local refining back-up in the state. Industry groups say airports are supposed to carry at least 27 days of jet fuel but importers are warning there is no firm assurance of what volumes will actually arrive from April onward as major refiners overseas prioritise their own domestic supplies. Analysts tracking the fuel trade note that key refiners in North Asia, particularly in China, have paused negotiations for late March and April cargoes because of uncertainty around crude flows, especially after several tankers were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipping.
Australia’s jet fuel imports have recently leaned on a few major players. China supplied around a third of volumes in 2025, roughly 2.6 billion litres, while Singapore and South Korea each shipped over 1 billion litres. Smaller but still important volumes also came from Malaysia, Taiwan and India. Local producers such as Ampol say deliveries are currently running as normal but they are closely tracking global market shifts for signs of disruption. Airlines are doing the same. Some, like Air New Zealand, have already announced cuts to domestic services, around 1,100 flights, because of fuel price pressures while large Australian carriers are seeking to raise hundreds of millions of dollars in new debt, arguing they can pass higher fuel costs through to ticket prices if needed.
The broader risk is that if imports falter rather than just becoming more expensive, governments may have to ration fuel between sectors. Energy analysts suggest essential services such as defence, emergency response and key logistics would get priority access to jet fuel, diesel and petrol, with agriculture and freight also high on the list. That sort of hierarchy could leave commercial airlines trimming schedules or reshaping routes if supplies tighten further. Infrastructure operators say the situation highlights why more secure onshore storage, pipelines and domestic refining capacity look increasingly important while aviation industry groups are pushing for stronger policy support for sustainable aviation fuel to attract investment and reduce reliance on volatile overseas markets. For now, it seems airports across the Asia-Pacific region can absorb short, sharp shocks but ratings agencies warn that prolonged restrictions on flights, particularly those linked to Middle Eastern carriers, would start to weigh heavily on airport revenues and margins.
