Migration intake is expected to exceed Treasury projections by 15% for this financial year. This increase is largely due to quieter but significant changes in how international student visas are processed. By adjusting risk ratings across more than a dozen universities, the government has effectively quickened the student visa process, potentially allowing for 40,000 more migrants than originally forecast.
Treasury currently estimates net migration at around 260,000 this year, already down from last year's post-pandemic high of 335,000. However, actual figures now look set to approach 300,000. The rise reflects faster visa approvals, a growing number of bridging visa holders and recent changes encouraging more applications for student and working holiday visas, especially from countries such as the UK and New Zealand.
A key factor is the Department of Home Affairs' recent decision to lower risk ratings for 13 public universities. These internal ratings influence how quickly student visas are approved. Lower ratings reduce bureaucracy, and students enrolling in specific universities can now declare that they meet financial and English-language requirements without further documentation. This approach quickens processing, though it may put strain on existing capacity and priority limits.
In addition, the government has increased priority processing allocations by 11%, allowing for approximately 15,660 extra student visas to be issued by 2026 across various institutions. Critics argue this so-called managed growth is inconsistent, as some universities appear to be exceeding their informal enrolment caps without facing consequences. While authorities insist on the importance of balancing output with available resources, evidence indicates some institutions have already surpassed their estimated allocations for the next calendar year.
The broader concern lies in national planning. Public protests have criticised perceived "mass migration," yet analysts note that migration figures are easing from pandemic-era highs. Experts argue there is still no clear and transparent framework for migration policy. Without a stable target, similar to a benchmark like the inflation rate, the government will likely continue to make short-term decisions rather than adopting a long-term approach. These unpredictable shifts can complicate budget planning and place sustained pressure on housing and labour markets.
