Airlines are targeting carbon neutrality by 2050, but the path to sustainability involves high costs that may be passed on to passengers. Industry estimates indicate the average plane ticket could rise by as much as $1,350 by mid-century, adding approximately $54 per passenger each year. Achieving this goal will require the construction of thousands of clean-fuel plants, placing long-term financial pressure on both the aviation industry and travellers.
There is currently a large gap between what is required and what is available. Sustainable aviation fuel, known as SAF, is viewed as the most viable short-term solution, though global production remains low. Only two million tonnes are produced annually compared to the 500 million tonnes needed. Airlines are urging governments to subsidise SAF as they did for wind and solar energy.
The overall cost of reaching net zero in global aviation is projected to hit $7.2 trillion, which breaks down to $268 billion each year. Next-generation aircraft powered by electric or hydrogen energy face major challenges, especially for long-haul routes. Many in the industry now believe that aircraft in 2050 will resemble current models, but will instead run on cleaner fuels. Some airlines and manufacturers are prioritising enhancements to existing designs, particularly with longer, thinner wings to improve fuel efficiency.
The broader consequences are significant. Fare increases will vary across regions depending on factors like government support and how quickly technology is adopted. Although the transition will be complex, industry leaders agree it is necessary and ultimately positive, expanding travel opportunities and boosting economies, though likely at a higher cost to passengers.
