Recent analysis shows a significant disparity in NDIS access between Sydney suburbs. Residents in lower-income western and south-western areas are enrolling in the scheme at rates up to six times higher than those in more affluent northern and eastern suburbs. This uneven participation is especially pronounced in autism-related claims, raising concerns around fairness and financial sustainability.
The NDIS, a $46 billion program supporting Australians with significant disabilities, includes areas like Campbelltown where more than one in 25 people receive assistance. In wealthier suburbs such as Mosman, that figure falls to one in 125. Socioeconomic factors strongly influence these patterns and the contrast becomes even sharper for autism cases, with some areas recording enrolment as frequent as one in 70 residents.
These insights come from a Menzies Research Centre study that combines NDIS enrolment data from 2024 with Australian Bureau of Statistics population estimates. The report indicates that autism, which now accounts for about 30% of all NDIS participants, places the greatest pressure on the scheme. Although it is often assumed that wealthier families are more adept at navigating the system, participation is significantly higher in lower-income communities, where access to private healthcare and alternative support is limited.
Experts believe this gap in disability support may stem from reduced availability of private medical services in disadvantaged suburbs. The NDIS may be acting as the only option for families whose children have developmental concerns, especially in the absence of early diagnostics or specialist care. Some health professionals also caution that the system currently allows autism diagnoses to be given too readily, further increasing enrolments.
Despite a Labor pledge to reduce annual growth from 10.8% to under 6% and exclude children with mild developmental delays from 2027, the scheme’s total cost is projected to rise to $105 billion over the next ten years. There are also plans to remove some participants, such as those with psychosocial conditions, from the scheme beginning in 2026. This will include the new “Thriving Kids” program, supported by $2 billion in joint state and federal funding.
These findings highlight the importance of reviewing how access and diagnoses are managed. Future reforms will likely focus on autism and related developmental conditions, which together represent almost 60% of NDIS spending. Any changes will need to balance the ongoing need for support with the growing risk of financial strain.
