New lending flexibility from Australia’s big four banks is helping more apartment projects over the line, aiming to lift completions to about 23,800 units this year and 23,600 next year, but the shift may only briefly ease housing pressures before a fresh supply slump hits.
Right now, the development pipeline is being driven by projects that have been sitting on the market for years and are finally reaching the presales and funding they need to proceed. Many of these developments were approved around 2022, when construction costs were surging and borrowing costs began climbing, which stalled new launches in key markets such as Sydney and Melbourne. The result is a wave of long delayed completions arriving in 2025 and 2026, even though very few new large scale towers are being kicked off to replace them.
Consultancy research shows build to sell apartment completions rising from roughly 19,300 last year to nearly 23,800 in 2025, the highest level since 2021, with a similar total forecast the year after. Behind the scenes, banks are easing terms for established developers, including cutting presales hurdles from about 65% to closer to 50% on some projects and directing more capital back towards residential construction after losing ground to private credit providers. However, this funding revival is mainly helping existing schemes reach the finish line rather than making new high rise projects in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane financially viable.
Looking further ahead, the national pipeline seems to thin out sharply, with completions projected to fall back to around 17,000 apartments by FY28 as today’s backlog is built out and not fully replaced. Regional hot spots such as the Gold Coast are still booming, with completions there expected to peak near 4,000 in 2027 before sliding to about 1,000 the following year, but these are often boutique, high end developments aimed at wealthy downsizers rather than mass market housing. Without a fresh wave of investor demand and feasible price points in the major capitals, the current lift in supply looks like a short term bump rather than a lasting solution to Australia’s housing shortage.
