Australian dealmaking is rolling into 2026 with more activity than many expected, even as conflict in the Middle East, volatile oil prices, sticky inflation and uncertainty over future rate cuts hang over markets. Rather than sitting on their hands, many boards are using this uncertain backdrop to revisit strategy, speed up long-term plans and look for ways to reshape their portfolios while competitors hesitate.
In mergers and acquisitions, Goldman Sachs currently sits at the top of the Australian rankings by deal value for the first quarter, advising on about $US15.2 billion (roughly $22 billion) of transactions and capturing close to half the market by value. Total announced deals reached around $US31.4 billion over the period, with rivals such as Barclays/Barrenjoey and UBS following behind. Bankers describe a stop-start environment, with bursts of activity then brief pauses as boards recheck valuations, financing conditions and the likely path for interest rates before signing off on major moves.
On the equity side, Macquarie Capital leads the local equity capital markets tables as bookrunner, backing about $US586.8 million of share issuance in a quarter where total equity raising sits near $US3.9 billion. A flurry of raisings in late January and early February, when market sentiment was supportive and before war headlines intensified in March, allowed companies to lock in capital at acceptable prices. Activity slowed sharply as uncertainty rose and equity deals shifted to a more opportunistic footing, with banks and issuers waiting for short windows of calmer trading to get transactions away.
Macquarie’s equity pipeline this year leans heavily toward energy and resources, with roughly 60% of issuance tied to those sectors, reflecting strong interest in critical minerals such as lithium, while industrials and financials contribute closer to 20%. UBS, which ranks among the top advisers in M&A, reports that deal appetite still looks solid beneath the surface, even though execution has paused in recent weeks. Many companies seem to be juggling the same cluster of risks, energy costs, supply chain resilience and the broader economic outlook, and the next phase of deal activity appears to hinge on how quickly geopolitical tensions ease and how central banks signal the next moves on rates.
