Net migration into Australia is expected to remain elevated after the Albanese government upgraded its forecasts for 2025-26, blaming slower departures and stronger arrivals from New Zealand. Policy makers now expect 35,000 more people than previously forecast that year, delaying the point when migration returns to pre-COVID levels and extending pressure on infrastructure and services.
Treasury's federal budget numbers show net overseas migration dropping more slowly than anticipated in December's mid-year update, with key years revised sharply higher. The 2025-26 forecast has been lifted from 260,000 to 295,000 people, while the 2026-27 estimate has increased from 225,000 to 245,000.
Officials link the change to fewer temporary visa holders leaving and a pick-up in trans-Tasman inflows.
Labor will prolong its two-year ban on temporary migrants buying existing homes, locking in the restriction until 2029 to ease housing market strain.
Government plans also include increasing the number of permanent skilled migrant visas but channelling them through a redesigned selection test that favours younger, more highly educated applicants. The new test aims to shift the permanent intake towards workers seen as lifting productivity and long-term tax revenues.
