Macquarie enters 2026 in a complicated position as its trading desks benefit when severe US cold snaps drive up demand for gas and power, yet the broader business must juggle softer sentiment toward asset managers, regulatory pressure at home and a stronger Australian dollar that drags on offshore income. The group has long built its reputation on managing energy supply and price risks across North America and Europe and past events like the 2021 Texas freeze showed how extreme weather can quickly turn into a major profit swing for its commodities division. Today about two thirds of Macquarie’s income comes from outside Australia which makes global markets, policy shifts and weather patterns unusually important for its bottom line.
Recent US storms again highlight this dynamic. As freezing conditions disrupted energy systems across several states and pushed up demand for heating, gas futures rose and trading volumes climbed, creating more opportunities for Macquarie’s commodities and markets business to profit from hedging, storage and logistics. Analysts now see ongoing volatility in gas and power markets as a source of potential upside for the unit through 2026, 2027 and even 2028 despite a weaker first half and concerns that earnings may have peaked in 2023. At the same time the group expects extra contributions from performance fees linked to data centre asset sales and from exiting certain public markets businesses in North America and Europe which adds more moving parts to an already complex earnings picture.
However the backdrop is far from straightforward. Macquarie’s earnings are sensitive to currency moves and with about 64% of revenue generated offshore a sustained rally in the Australian dollar effectively trims reported income. Analysts suggest this foreign exchange impact alone could shave around 2% from second half 2026 total income if the local currency remains firm, just as global asset managers face falling share prices and growing scrutiny of their portfolios including those tied to artificial intelligence and housing related policies in the US. Domestically the group is still managing regulatory fallout from past operational risk failures, with the prudential regulator easing some liquidity constraints but keeping an extra $500 million capital overlay in place, which underlines that risk and compliance remain under the microscope. In that context management will be pressed to explain not only how its commodities and markets division is tracking but also why it is pursuing an $11.6 billion logistics acquisition and how it plans to strengthen risk systems after missteps such as the collapse of an external fund available on its platform.
The bigger picture for investors looks like a trade off between cyclical tailwinds and structural challenges. Stronger mortgage and deposit growth, healthier investment banking fees and elevated energy market volatility seem to support the case for earnings to rise toward an expected profit of about $4.19 billion for the year to 31 March, up from $3.72 billion but still below the $5.18 billion peak in 2023. Yet the combination of currency pressure, tougher regulatory expectations and a more cautious mood around global asset managers means the path back to record profits is unlikely to be smooth. Macquarie’s upcoming operational briefing appears set to focus heavily on risk management, technology upgrades and the durability of its trading income, and the way it frames these issues may influence whether investors see recent weather driven gains as the start of a sustained recovery or only another temporary spike in a volatile earnings cycle.
