The National Disability Insurance Scheme has become one of the country’s biggest and fastest growing social programmes, now costing around $50 billion a year and already outranking Medicare in government spending. Over the past few years more Australians have sought assessments for autism and other neurodivergent conditions and many are entering the scheme as primary participants rather than relying on mainstream health or education services. This has happened as federal and state governments work on a new Thriving Kids programme, designed to shift some support for children with developmental challenges away from the NDIS and back into more universal systems like schools, primary healthcare and community services.
Recent data shows how sharply the trend is accelerating. In 2025 the NDIS added about 68,000 new participants overall and around 62,500 of those were people recorded with autism. The number of participants whose primary diagnosis is autism has climbed to more than 324,000 people, or about 43% of everyone on the scheme, up from 36% just two years earlier. Autism related supports cost $10.3 billion in 2025, almost one fifth of total NDIS spending, up from $8.9 billion the year before and nearly double the $5.9 billion in 2022. Policy analysts note that many existing participants are also being reclassified into the autism category and experts in disability policy argue that milder neurodivergent or mental health conditions may be better served by other health, education and community programmes rather than intensive NDIS plans.
The broader concern is what this rapid growth means for the budget, inflation and the long-term stability of disability support. The federal government has agreed with the states to slow NDIS annual growth from more than 10% to roughly 5% to 6% but the current trajectory suggests that will be difficult without major redesign. Autism is driving most new entries to the scheme and the bulk of autism participants are school aged children rather than the youngest group targeted by Thriving Kids, which means billions in costs are likely to remain inside the NDIS unless broader eligibility and support models change. Economists warn that sustained high spending can fuel inflation and interest rate pressure yet disability advocates stress that people with severe lifelong impairments still rely on the scheme for essential daily support. For now, the NDIS appears to be entering a decisive period where governments must balance financial sustainability with fairness, redesign early intervention services for children and decide how far the scheme should reach into mental health and neurodivergence across the life span.
