SkyCity Entertainment is scaling back its earnings expectations for FY26, blaming shrinking casino spend and softer visitation across its New Zealand and Australian venues. The casino and hotels group now guides underlying EBITDA to a range of $180 million to $190 million, reduced from its earlier forecast of $190 million to $210 million.
Reported EBITDA is expected to land between $155 million and $165 million, compared with the prior guidance band of $170.6 million to $190.6 million.
Management links the slowdown to a drop-off in trading and visitor numbers that began in March, following a sharp spike in fuel prices. Those fuel costs jumped after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for about 20% of global oil shipments, feeding through to household budgets and travel costs.
The pressure is hitting SkyCity’s integrated resort precincts hardest in Auckland and Adelaide, which the company says are bearing the brunt of weaker discretionary spending. New Zealand’s tougher economic backdrop is adding another drag, particularly given three of SkyCity’s four entertainment complexes sit in that market.
Guidance assumes current trading conditions broadly hold through the remainder of FY26, so any further hit to consumer confidence would present another downside risk. The company acknowledges a high level of uncertainty around how long current macroeconomic pressures, including elevated fuel prices and constrained household spending, might persist.
Investors are weighing whether cost-conscious families will keep cutting back on gaming, dining and hotel stays, or whether visitation stabilises if fuel and inflation pressures ease.
