Australian CEOs are heading into the next few years unusually upbeat about revenue even as they brace for tougher decisions on staffing. In the latest global survey from a major consulting firm, around 9 in 10 local leaders say they feel confident about revenue growth in the year ahead, a stronger outlook than the roughly three-quarters of executives surveyed worldwide. At the same time, AI is sitting at the centre of almost every strategic discussion, with leaders feeling pressure to transform quickly even though the payoff from AI investments looks patchy so far.
Behind the optimism is a more complicated employment story. Only about 14% of Australian companies say AI has actually delivered extra profit to date, compared with around 30% globally, yet many have already cut roles or slowed hiring. Graduate recruitment in professional services has slipped to roughly half of its 2022 post-pandemic peak, one major consulting group trimmed about 10% of its local workforce last year and large banks have announced thousands of role reductions or restructures in areas like call centres and support functions. Future-of-work analysts suggest executives promised shareholders rapid productivity gains from AI and when those gains did not show up quickly, cost-cutting became the fastest way to defend margins.
The survey numbers help explain where this may be heading. About 32% of Australian CEOs say they expect to reduce mid-career roles by 2029, compared with 25% of global peers and more than half anticipate fewer junior positions over the next three years, slightly above the global figure of just under half. Senior staff appear only marginally safer, with around 11% of local companies expecting to cut at that level, roughly in line with the global average. At the same time, about 68% of Australian leaders list upskilling as their top workforce priority but only 28% feel confident they can attract strong technical AI talent, well below the global benchmark of 42%. Industry research from other advisory firms backs this up, finding that while around 80% of organisations frame AI projects around “efficiency” the ones focusing on growth and innovation are currently seeing the strongest financial benefits.
Stepping back, the picture looks like a classic transformation crunch, as leaders fear falling behind on AI, with roughly 58% of Australian CEOs more worried than peers that they are not moving fast enough, yet many hesitate to make the long-term investments in skills, training and systems that would unlock real value. Trust in AI tools is rising, with more than a third of local executives saying they have a high level of trust, but concerns around ethics, responsible use and real-world capability are growing just as quickly. Consultants argue that meaningful returns usually take 18 to 24 months of sustained effort and that companies win when they redeploy people into higher-value work rather than relying only on headcount reductions. For workers and organisations alike, it seems the next decade will be shaped less by a single AI “big bang” and more by a series of incremental bets, where the organisations that experiment early, invest in their teams and stick with the learning curve are the ones most likely to come out ahead.
