Australia’s farm sector enters 2026 in a strong position, with both livestock and crops benefiting from geopolitical friction that is disrupting traditional trade flows. The country now sells about 70% of its produce overseas and the national agriculture agency expects the industry’s total value to reach around $100 billion by the end of the 2026 financial year. Export revenue alone looks set to approach $80 billion, reflecting how global buyers are turning to Australian suppliers as other major producers face higher tariffs, boycotts or falling output.
A relatively low 10% tariff on most Australian goods heading to the United States has helped, especially when compared with steeper barriers facing exporters from parts of Europe and North America. Analysts from major banks and agribusiness institutions note that Australia is not the main target of current US trade policies, which gives local producers a smoother path into key markets. At the same time, reduced beef supply from the United States has opened a sizeable gap in global meat trade and Australian cattle producers are stepping in, with the US now taking about a quarter of Australia’s beef exports. China still applies taxes that could shave as much as $1 billion a year off the local beef industry’s potential, yet export volumes to China remain substantial, with nearly 295,000 tonnes shipped in the first 11 months of 2025.
Sheep and cropping producers are enjoying similar tailwinds. Australia supplies roughly half of the world’s sheep meat needs and tighter local flock numbers after years of drought are lining up with strong global appetite for lamb and mutton, which looks likely to support prices through 2026. In crops, canola growers appear to be the surprise beneficiaries of the trade dispute between China and Canada, where Chinese buyers are reducing purchases from their traditional supplier. With Canada diverting more canola into US biofuel markets, Australia and Ukraine are stepping into the space China leaves behind and improving price and demand prospects for Australian canola.
Higher-value specialty crops seem to be riding the same wave. Australia has grown into the world’s second-largest almond producer, helped by tensions between major powers that are limiting access for some US competitors and opening more room in the Chinese market. Olive oil, once a small domestic industry, now produces about 19,000 tonnes each year and aims to double that output by 2035, driven by steadily rising local consumption and growing recognition of Australian quality. Even dairy, which faces softer global butter prices, is holding up domestically as declining milk production forces processors to compete harder for supply and keeps farmgate returns firm despite weaker international benchmarks. All of this suggests Australian agriculture is well placed to benefit from ongoing trade realignments, although the outlook still depends on weather, policy shifts and whether global demand can keep matching this rapid growth.
