Sydney is now in a phase where home prices have stretched far beyond what many households earn, and that gap keeps widening. Since the early 2000s, data from valuation and census sources shows more and more suburbs drifting from “manageable” into “severely” then “impossibly” unaffordable, especially across the northern beaches, eastern suburbs and north shore. In past decades, younger adults typically moved towards Sydney for education and higher paying work, then started families once they were established. Today that pattern is breaking down as housing costs overwhelm incomes, even in suburbs that used to be entry level options.
A detailed analysis by data firms tracking home values, incomes and population flows maps out how sharply this shift has accelerated. Areas are classed as affordable when the median home costs less than about 30% of the median household income, while at the other end “impossibly unaffordable” means prices sit at more than nine times local earnings. By 2024, roughly 55% of Greater Sydney falls into that top stress category and many of those suburbs are now shedding residents, particularly people under 35. At the same time, regional hubs along the NSW coast and nearby interstate cities, where combined house and unit prices sit closer to $740,000 compared with Sydney’s $1.2 million, are picking up families looking for space and a chance to buy.
The numbers on movement show the trend in a more human way. Greater Sydney still recorded overall population growth of about 2% in the 2023‑24 financial year, helped by more than 100,000 new overseas arrivals. But once you strip out migration from abroad, the city lost around 41,000 residents to the rest of Australia, up from 38,000 the year before. Many of those leaving are younger parents who discover that even after saving hard, the only realistic path to a family home is in the Hunter, Newcastle, Wollongong, the NSW north coast or south east Queensland. Agents on the ground in high end coastal suburbs now see most local buyers as downsizers from large houses, and their purchasing power bids up apartment prices and squeezes out first time buyers even when parents chip in.
The wider consequences look significant even if the exact outcomes are still unfolding. Regions such as the Hunter, Wollongong and the Gold Coast appear to be enjoying mini baby booms as new arrivals combine cheaper housing with starting or expanding families, while Sydney’s birth rate continues to slide. Outer ring suburbs once seen as a pressure valve for affordability, like parts of Blacktown, have rapidly shifted into the “impossibly unaffordable” camp and this suggests there is no easy “drive until you qualify” solution left within the metropolitan area. State level planning moves to override local resistance and rezone more land for apartments are meant to increase supply and, over time, cool price growth, but analysis of affordability trends over the past five years shows 65% to 70% of regions still becoming less affordable, not more. Without a faster lift in new, genuinely attainable housing, Sydney seems to be facing a prolonged period of brain drain as younger workers, future business owners and growing families quietly build their lives somewhere else.
