Cotality's national Home Value Index fell in October, the company said, extending a run of monthly declines to seven consecutive months and wiping approximately $63,400 off the value of the median Australian dwelling since the March peak.
The combined capitals index has fallen 8.1% over seven months, the fastest pace of decline on record since the 2022-23 downturn. Brisbane dwelling values dropped 2.0% in October and are 6.1% lower over the rolling quarter, while Perth values fell 1.7% for the month and are 5.7% lower over the quarter. Sydney values fell 1.6% in October and are 4.7% lower over the quarter, placing it third among the capitals for pace of decline.
The median Sydney dwelling value is $1,178,959, which is more than 10% below the February peak and below where it was five years ago, SBS News reported. Brisbane's median value fell 2% in October but remains 46% higher than five years earlier. Compared with five years ago, Melbourne dwelling values sit 7.3% lower, Sydney values are 1.5% below their October 2021 level, and ACT values are broadly flat.
Cotality research director Tim Lawless said housing demand was first squeezed by affordability and serviceability constraints, pressures that were then amplified by four rate hikes, persistently weak consumer confidence and ongoing cost-of-living strains, with the Federal Budget adding further drag from mid-May. He described conditions across Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide as a correction after extreme growth over the prior six years, noting that values had fallen across virtually every suburb in those cities over the past three months.
The median time on market is 39 days, the highest since August 2020, and vendor discounting is at 4.7%, the largest since May 2019. Modelled estimates show home sales over the past three months running 23% behind the same period a year ago and 18% short of the previous five-year average.
Among the capitals, Sydney and Brisbane recorded the steepest sales contractions, at 30% and 29% respectively against the prior year. Combined capital auction clearance rates have been running below 50% on a consistent basis.
Despite fresh listings running almost 18% below average, total capital city advertised stock has climbed to its highest point for this time of year since 2019. Lawless said buyers now have more stock to choose from and more leverage than a year ago, but remain notably absent from the market due to low confidence and ongoing serviceability barriers. Gerard Burg said values are expected to keep falling until the Reserve Bank begins cutting interest rates, which most economists are not forecasting until late 2027.
Sellers face a slower market with longer selling times and larger discounts needed to secure a sale. Buyers have more stock to choose from and greater negotiating leverage than a year ago, though low confidence and ongoing serviceability barriers are keeping many would-be purchasers out of the market.
Official statements: Cotality
Reporting: SBS News
Written by Pick & Scroll News from the reporting and documents linked above.
